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The football plays we don't see
November 17, 2009
When the Patriots went for it on fourth down Sunday night and failed, I thought it was the right decision, even though they lost. It just looked bad because New England lost the game, but the alternate reality is unseen -- the (high) probability going in that they would have gotten the two yards, sealing a victory, plus the unseen (but reasonably high) probability that Indianapolis would have gotten a touchdown anyway after a punt, vs the (seen) consequences of failure on fourth-and-two. Usually New England gets the first down; Belicheck just rolled snake-eyes this time.
The Tax Policy Blog had the same thought. Which may make me unfit to watch football games with anybody.
UPDATE: OK, I can still watch games with the TaxProf. (Via Going Concern).
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Comments
I agree. It was a good gamble.
And even if the Pats don't get the first down, if they stop the Colts from getting a touchdown they win anyway.
In other words, they have two chances to win as opposed to one if they just punt the ball.
Of course, if the Pats had gotten the first down, the same people who are now criticizing Belicheck would be deifying him.
To them, it's a good call if it works, a bad call if it doesn't work.
Posted by: peter | November 18, 2009 9:12 AM