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Will Obama get rid of AMT?

November 12, 2008

Dan Meyer is much braver than I am about predicting tax policy:

The Democrats will either eliminate the AMT OR effectively make sure that no one with adjusted AGI under $200,000 is affected; the maximum income for OASDI (or Social Security) will increase to at least $250K and the ceiling may be eliminated entirely a la Medicare; Obama will not be able to cut taxes to $250 K; instead, only those earning under $120,000 if MFJ ($60 if MFS, $90 if single, $105 K if HoH) will get tax cuts. Going forward to 2010, assuming some improvement in the economy, tax rates will be increased, not at $250K, but at about $180K ($90 for MFS, $135 for single, $160 for HoH). Two other predictions: the Bush tax cuts for estate and other taxes will be allowed to lapse in 2010 and gay couples will get some explicit recognition: one possibility is expanded availability of Head of Household (HoH) status for gays/lesbians living in civil unions.

I think the expiration of the Bush tax cuts in 2010 is a safe bet. Everything else is subject to change, depending on the economy and politics. I had thought President Obama would be smarter than to raise taxes in the teeth of a recession, but he may do so anyway.

Tags: Dan Meyer.tax policy.