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FAIR TAX - AN OXYMORON?

November 27, 2007

Business-school prof Hank Adler has posted a lengthy analysis in opposition to the "Fair tax" national retail sales tax plan (via Hewitt).

My views of the plan are posted here and here.

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Hank Adler's analysis was woefully deficient, incomplete, and lacked a thorough understanding of his subject. (Neal Boortz has published a rebuttal that should make you, and other Adler admirers, cringe.)

FairTax naysayers love to characterize anything purporting to be a "fair tax" as an oxymoron - but it is not true. The idea of fairness has to do with equitable sharing in the cost by all members who depend upon the social fabric for food, shelter, clothing and post-necessity economic enterprise. And, because of the shift of power from politicians and special interests under an enacted FairTax, the elected will find it more difficult to both enlarge government, and implement any dual system of taxation. FairTax strategist, Dennis Calabrese, discusses how the FairTax repeals the income tax ( http://snipurl.com/repealsinctax ), how it does away with the IRS ( http://snipurl.com/doesawaywithirs ), and how it addresses other aspects ( http://snipurl.com/ftvideofaqs ) of frequent concern to skeptics.

Within months of passage, FairTax prices would look SIMILAR to prices BEFORE FairTax - NOT 30% HIGHER - as opponents contend; increased competition (due to lower costs of doing business) would see to it. The FairTax rate on new items would be 29.9% (on the new, reduced cost of items because business isn't taxed under FairTax - thus lowering retail prices by 20% to 30%), or 23% of the "tax inclusive" price tag - this is the way INCOME TAX is figured (parts of the total dollar).

The effective tax rate percentages, that different income groups would pay under a FairTax consumption tax, are calculated by crediting the monthly "prebate" (rebate of tax on necessities) against all likely monthly spending of citizen families (1 member, and greater based on figures established by the Dept. of Commerce - a single person receiving ~$200/mo. A family of four receiving ~$500, in addition to family earners receiving their WHOLE paycheck). Prof.'s Kotlikoff and Rapson (10/06) have concluded,

(From study: http://snipurl.com/kotcomparetaxrates ) "...the FairTax imposes much lower average taxes on working-age households than does the current system. The FairTax broadens the tax base from what is now primarily a system of labor income taxation to a system that taxes, albeit indirectly, both labor income and existing wealth. By including existing wealth in the effective tax base, much of which is owned by rich and middle-class elderly households, the FairTax is able to tax labor income at a lower effective rate and, thereby, lower the average lifetime tax rates facing working-age Americans.

"Consider, as an example, a single household age 30 earning $50,000. The household’s average tax rate under the current system is 21.1 percent. It’s 13.5 percent under the FairTax. Since the FairTax would preserve the purchasing power of Social Security benefits and also provide a tax rebate, older low-income workers who will live primarily or exclusively on Social Security would be better off. As an example, the average remaining lifetime tax rate for an age 60 married couple with $20,000 of earnings falls from its current value of 7.2 percent to -11.0 percent under the FairTax. As another example, compare the current 24.0 percent remaining lifetime average tax rate of a married age 45 couple with $100,000 in earnings to the 14.7 percent rate that arises under the FairTax."

Further,

(From study: http://snipurl.com/kotftmacromicro ) "...once one moves to generations postdating the baby boomers there are positive welfare gains for all income groups in each cohort. Under a 23 percent FairTax policy, the poorest members of the generation born in 1990 enjoy a 13.5 percent welfare gain. Their middle-class and rich contemporaries experience 5 and 2 percent welfare gains, respectively. The welfare gains are largest for future generations. Take the cohort born in 2030. The poorest members of this cohort enjoy a huge 26 percent improvement in their well-being. For middle class members of this birth group, there's a 12 percent welfare gain. And for the richest members of the group, the gain is 5 percent."

The FairTax has a much greater opportunity for success to operate as a "self-regulating" mechanism because of increased visibility. One finds that the current system, ostensibly regulated by the Internal Revenue Code, is in fact poorly regulated because of continually increasing complexity (the effect of "tax favors" from politicians, through lobbyists, to favored corporations and other special interests) stemming from the desire by those holding government position to steer public behavior using tax code "carrots." We have seen how 100 years of this type of behavior has eroded the nation's currency and the purchasing power of working family incomes.

"Visionist," Tom Frey believes the current tax system will soon simply collapse ( http://snipurl.com/incometaxcollapse ); and economist Laurence Kotlikoff heralds that - short of enactment of FairTax (or an otherwise unlikely change in spending habits) - the U.S. will shortly facing an irrevocable economic breakdown ( http://snipurl.com/meltdowninprogress ).

One thing is for sure, it is truly oxymoronic behavior for tax policy to penalize American exports, such as the current income tax does ( http://http://snipurl.com/tradeinequityblog ). Warren Buffett has recently called for moving to a progressive consumption tax - which is what the FairTax is.

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